Risk model

A mathematical representation of a system, whose aim is to quantify the probability, location, and intensity of a future adverse event and its consequences due to exposure and vulnerability conditions. These models typically use historical data, expert knowledge, and theoretical insights in their construction. More recently in the context of climate change, risk models also take into account future climate scenarios.

Use of Coastal Storm Modelling System (CoSMoS) to model hydrodynamic impacts of shoreline protection

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Coastal Storm Modelling System (CoSMoS) was used to model hydrodynamic impacts of shoreline protection for three counties in the San Francisco Bay Area and it was used to simulate potential traffic impacts on the basis of current roadway infrastructure and commuter data.  This has proved valuable in the coastal areas' protection against rising sea levels in one area, to avoid flooding in another area along the coast, by subsequently flooding major roadways and disrupting traffic flows beyond the original inundation zone. This is important because linkages between multiple and interconnected infrastructure systems can give rise to cascading disruptions.

CoSMoS was designed to provide emergency responders and planners with critical storm hazard information that can be used to manage complex coastal settings while improving public safety and mitigating physical damage.

Results from CoSMoS can be incorporated with Geographic Information System (GIS) platforms to include social and resource data.

 

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